Malaysia 2Q24 GDP Review
August 2024
- Malaysia’s 2Q2024 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 5.9% YoY (1Q2024: 4.2% YoY). The final print surpassed the advanced estimates (5.8% YoY) released in the prior month, largely driven by strong private consumption, expansion in investment activities and improvements in net exports. As a result, 1H2024 grew by 5.1% (1H2023: 4.1%) which positions the domestic economy on a steady path to achieve the full year official growth target of 4-5% in 2024.
- Domestic demand continues to drive the country’s GDP growth, supported by marked improvements in net exports. Domestic demand grew by 6.9% YoY (1Q2024: 6.1%), amidst stronger growth across the board with private consumption growing by 6.0% (1Q2024: 4.7%) and investment by 12.0% (1Q2024: 9.2%) YoY. Government consumption moderated slightly to 3.6% YoY (1Q2024: 7.3%). Notwithstanding, net exports improved by 3.4% YoY (1Q2024: -24.5%), amidst an improved trade surplus as imports and exports continued to post positive figures in 2Q2024, growing by 8.7% and 8.4% YoY, respectively. The improvements in exports were in line with the recovery of the electrical and electronics (E&E) segment and commodity prices, whilst the improved imports were mainly driven by the stronger imports of intermediate goods and continued demand for capital and consumption goods.
- Domestic demand will continue to be boosted by private consumption and domestic direct investment. Malaysia’s labor market recorded further improvements in 2Q2024, with unemployment rate holding steady at 3.3% and the size of labor force improving by 1.1% QoQ (largest QoQ expansion for more than a decade) to an all-time high of 17.15 million. We also expect further boost to the disposable income from EPF Account 3 withdrawals (RM8.9 billion as of 25 Jul’24) and 7-15% salary hikes for civil servants over the next 2 years (Dec’24 and Jan’26). On the investment front, the government unveiled its GEAR-Up program on 8th Aug’24, designed to coordinate efforts among Government-Linked Investment Companies (GLICs) to stimulate growth in key economic sectors, particularly those in high-growth high-value (HGHV) industries. The first phase will see six GLICs collectively pledging to invest RM120 billion in domestic direct investments (DDI) over the next 5 years, on top of RM440.0 billion in public market investments.
Opus View:
- Going forward, the growth of the Malaysian economy will continue to be driven by the resilient domestic demand. Household spending will continue to be supported by the strong labor market and steady employment and wage growth. Additionally, the key growth drivers also include 1) further recovery of export and tourism, 2) robust domestic investments and 3) boost in the disposable income. We expect 2024 GDP growth to be at 4.8% – 5.0%.
- We maintain our view that BNM will maintain OPR at 3.00% for the remainder of the year. Even with the commencement of global monetary policy easing towards year-end and into 2025, the strength of Malaysia’s domestic demand does not warrant any rate cuts.
- The stronger growth should also provide support for MYR strength, apart from the expected US Fed rate cuts. The USD/MYR has strengthened by 4.6% YTD. The sustained MYR strength would also provide further boost to the Malaysian bond market which saw inflow of RM7.8 billion in the month of July
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