On: May 9, 2025 In: Blog, Fixed Income, Knowledge Centre

Central Bank Updates: FED and BNM hold rates steady

8 May 2025

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)

  • The US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its key interest rate steady at the target range of 4.25% – 4.50% as expected. The Fed’s policy rate has been unchanged since Dec’24 as the central bank struggles to estimate the impact of Trump’s tariffs notwithstanding the bank’s downgrade of economic outlook in March’s meeting which called for higher inflation and slower economic growth. The US Treasury (UST) market saw a smaller reaction with 2y muted to close at 3.78% while UST 10y fell 2.8bps to close at 4.27%. The dollar index (DXY) firmed at 0.2% gain to close at 99.61 in reaction to the FOMC meeting.
  • The Fed acknowledged that uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. The Fed Chair Powell said it remains too early to determine whether risks of higher unemployment or higher inflation will emerge as a greater concern. Powell added that the Fed is “appropriate to be patient” restating that the central bank is comfortable keeping rates unchanged until a better understanding of the impact to the economy emerges.

MPC

  • Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 3.0% at its May 8 meeting, extending its steady stance since May 2023. The decision reflects confidence in Malaysia’s economic fundamentals with growth in Q1 2025 supported by resilient domestic demand, continued export performance particularly in electrical and electronic goods, and the ongoing investment in multiyear projects. However, the MPC highlighted that escalating US tariffs and rising global uncertainties have increased downside risks for Malaysia’s external sector prompting continued vigilance as global conditions evolve.
  • BNM lowered the Statutory Reserve Requirement (SRR) Ratio by 100 bps from 2.00% to 1.00%, effective 16 May 2025. The SRR reduction is expected to add approximately RM19 billion worth of liquidity into the banking system. This liquidity enhancement measure reinforces the central bank’s commitment to maintain sufficient liquidity in the domestic financial system, providing local financial institutions with improved balance sheet flexibility while simultaneously supporting robust financial intermediation activities.
  • Headline and core inflation averaged 1.5% and 1.9% respectively in Q1 2025 and are expected to remain manageable amid moderate global cost conditions and contained domestic demand pressures. The MPC highlighted that the ringgit’s performance will continue to be shaped by external factors but Malaysia’s economic prospects and structural reforms should provide underlying support. While the current policy stance is deemed appropriate for sustaining growth and price stability, the MPC remains vigilant and stands ready to adjust policy if global trade tensions, weaker sentiment, or commodity price shocks become a threat.

Opus View

  • We continue to see additional rate cuts in 2025, with the view of up to 50 basis points total rate cut for The Fed. While we foresee the downside risk to US economic growth and inflation, we remain comfortable with the latest economic prints where labour market remains resilient while inflation remains at a manageable level. We continue to closely monitor the effects from the policy developments related to trade tariffs and retaliation, tax reforms, and other economic measures introduced by the Trump administration.
  • Locally, the reaction is relatively muted with government bonds only inching down by 1-3 bps from previous closing. The local bond market is still supported by the reduction in supply and demand from local institutions.
  • For 2025, we expect the yields to move down steadily driven by a potential Malaysia OPR cut amid slower growth. Hence, we aim to lengthen duration to between 5 – 7 years, while focusing on high quality corporate sukuk for yield pick-up and trading opportunities on government sukuk.
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