31 July 2024
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
- Federal Reserve kept current Fed Funds Rate (FFR) unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%, in line with market expectations that the July meeting will be a non-event. However, the market interpreted the overall tone as dovish for affirming their anticipation of a cut in the September meeting. Consequently, 2-year US Treasury (UST) yields declined from the intraday high 4.39% to a low of 4.26% before closing at 4.28%, extending the broader downtrend throughout the month.
- Fed statement changes acknowledged softer labour market as recent job gains have “moderated” and that unemployment rate has “moved up” but still low while noting “some” further progress on inflation heading towards the Fed’s 2% target in recent months.
- Fed chair Powell press conference sets up potential rate cut in September, noting that upside risks to inflation have decreased while downside risks to their employment mandate are real now.
Opus View
- Likelihood of rate cuts soon has increased. We see likelihood of the US cutting rates by 25 to 50 bps in 2024, with the first to be as early as September. Markets are pricing 3 cuts in 2024 (more than the Fed’s dot-plot projections of 1 cut), with the first starting in Sep’24 FOMC.
- USDMYR now at below 4.60. With the expectation of the Fed rate cut, USD is expected to weaken. We are also seeing strong buying in the MGS space, with both local and foreign buying. The 10-year MGS traded at 3.69%, down 2 bps this morning.
- Narrative of rate cuts supportive of bond market. While the timing and the quantum of rate cuts in 2024 is still debatable and data dependent, the narrative of rate cuts commencing is supportive of the bond market. The local Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) market will also benefit from this narrative even though we expect the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) set by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to remain at 3.00% in 2024.
Disclaimer
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