On: March 11, 2025 In: Blog, Fixed Income, Knowledge Centre

6 March 2025

Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)

  • Bank Negara Malaysia maintained Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 3% in the March Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, marking the eleventh consecutive time that the central bank has hold the policy rate. The central bank continues to assess that the current OPR level and monetary policy stance remains ‘supportive’ of the economy and is consistent with the current inflation and growth prospects.
  • Cautiously optimistic growth outlook expectations despite uncertainties in global trade policies. GDP expanded by 5.1% YoY in 2024, driven by robust domestic consumption and export recovery. BNM expects growth to be sustained throughout 2025 (estimated at 4.5% – 5.5%) supported by a resilient labor market, stable wage growth, and ongoing in infrastructure projects. Policy measures such as minimum wage hikes and civil servant salary adjustments are expected to bolster household spending while multi-year private and public sector investments will reinforce industrial capacity and export potential. However, external risks remain, including potential trade restrictions and geopolitical tensions affecting key partners like China.
  • Inflation continues to be subdued and is expected to remain manageable throughout 2025.  After recording an average headline inflation of 1.80% in 2024, Malaysia’s inflation continued to remain low in the first month of 2025 with headline and core inflation at 1.75% and 1.80%, respectively. Overall, inflation in 2025 is anticipated to remain under control amid the easing global cost conditions and the absence of excessive domestic demand pressures though upside risks loom from subsidy rationalization (e.g., RON95 fuel), adjustments to electricity tariffs, and rising operational costs linked to foreign worker levies.
  • BNM highlighted persistent global risks which includes US trade policy shifts under President Trump and escalating tariff tensions which could disrupt supply chains and financial markets. While Malaysia’s direct exposure to US protectionist measures is limited, indirect effects via trade partners like China warrant vigilance. BNM also reiterated its commitment to data-driven policy adjustments. The ringgit’s performance, while influenced by external volatility is expected to find support from narrowing interest rate differentials and Malaysia’s structural reforms.

Opus View

  • Heading into 2025, we continue to anticipate that the trajectory for rate cuts to continue globally in view of an expected global growth slowdown although the speed and quantum remains uncertain. We expect OPR to stay at 3.00% at least until 1H2025 as inflation remains manageable amid a robust domestic economy. The reduction of Government bond supply and contained inflation are positive factors for the Malaysian sukuk market as we expect continued demand from local institutions.
  • Hence, we opine that the domestic bond market remains an attractive asset class for investors seeking to hedge against potential volatility in the equity market in 2025 and to lock in higher yields. We continue to see a low risk-reward benefits from going longer duration as the yield curve continues to remain flat. Hence, we widened our target duration range on the lower end to between 4 – 6 years while focusing on high quality corporate sukuk for yield pick-up.
Disclaimer

The information, analysis and opinions expressed herein are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual entity. Individual investors should contact their own licensed financial professional advisor to determine the most appropriate investment options. This material contains the opinions of the manager, based on assumptions or market conditions and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information provided herein may include data or opinion that has been obtained from, or is based on, sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. Opus Asset Management Sdn Bhd and its employees accept no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this material or its contents.